Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York on 29 September 2026 (following the UN General Assembly High-Level Week), Jaishankar said disruptions caused by the ongoing Ukraine conflict and the Iran-Gulf conflict are delivering a “devastating impact” on Global South economies.
He highlighted a compounding “4F crisis” — Food, Fuel, Fertiliser and Finance — that is proving “very, very stressful” for developing nations.
Grain shipments under threat: Major grain exporters may be unable to send out shipments, particularly through the Black Sea corridor.
Fertiliser shortages: Significant shortages are already emerging because key producers in West Asia (Middle East) and Russia have seen production affected. Roughly one-third of seaborne fertiliser traffic passes through the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz region.
Energy pressures: The energy market is already “very tight.” Both the physical security of oil supplies and the politics surrounding them are creating a double crisis.
Climate risk: A possible Super El Niño could further worsen agricultural output and food production.
Financial impact: Conflicts cause capital to move toward “safe harbours” and away from the Global South, tightening finance for vulnerable economies.
“We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea… We are already looking at major significant fertiliser shortages… On top of it, we are looking at a Super El Niño. So there is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months.”
He stressed that the effects of these conflicts extend far beyond the countries directly involved and urged major powers to consider the wider consequences of their decisions on vulnerable nations in the Global South.
The warning comes amid ongoing concerns over maritime bottlenecks, restricted grain exports from the Black Sea region, and disruptions to fertiliser trade routes linked to tensions in the Gulf.
India has consistently called for de-escalation, protection of commercial shipping and uninterrupted flows of energy and food supplies.