An informal “straw poll” conducted by the 15-member UN Security Council on 29 September 2026 placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the clear frontrunner, according to multiple diplomatic sources.
Grynspan, who currently heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), received 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes and two “no opinion” votes.
Guyana’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett — 8 encourage, 6 discourage, 1 no opinion
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — 8 encourage, 7 discourage.
This was the fourth informal poll in the process. Grynspan has now topped three of the four rounds (July, mid-September and the latest September vote), while Rodrigues-Birkett briefly led the August poll.
Current Secretary-General António Guterres of Portugal will complete his second five-year term on 31 December 2026.
The next Secretary-General is expected to take office on 1 January 2027.
There has never been a female UN Secretary-General in the organisation’s more than 80-year history.
If elected, Grynspan would also become the first person of Jewish heritage to hold the post.
The straw polls are non-binding and held in secret. Council members indicate whether they “encourage,” “discourage” or have “no opinion” on each candidate. Early rounds use identical ballots, so it is not yet clear whether any “discourage” votes came from the five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) who hold veto power.
Later rounds are expected to use colour-coded ballots that will reveal potential vetoes without identifying which permanent member cast them.
After former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet withdrew earlier in September, seven candidates remain in the race (four women and three men). Further informal polls are anticipated in the coming weeks, with a formal recommendation from the Security Council to the General Assembly still some time away.
The process remains fluid. Even a strong showing in straw polls does not guarantee selection, as consensus among the permanent five is essential.
Grynspan’s background as an economist, former Costa Rican vice president (1994–1998) and long-time UN official has positioned her as a candidate with broad experience in development, trade and multilateral diplomacy.